Most U.S. voters believe Republicans will capture both the House and the Senate in next week’s election, according to a newly released poll, another sign that the much-anticipated red wave is more than a product of GOP spin.
The Convention of States Action survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group found that 50.2% of likely election voters think Republicans will win control of both houses in the Nov. 8 balloting, while 80.5% believe the GOP will take at least one chamber.
Only 30.3% say that the parties will split the chambers, with the Democrats retaining control of one house and Republicans winning the other. Just 19.5% said Democrats would keep both chambers.
“The American people are wise, pragmatic, and understand what needs to be done to get the nation back on track, despite the fact that so many elected officials in Washington, DC do not. In the final estimation, voters–even Democratic voters–have determined that the current leadership is not getting it done, and believe Republicans will sweep big on election day,” said Convention of States president Mark Meckler.
At the same time, he warned that “our previous polling shows that Republicans have also failed to make a strong enough case to voters, and thus should be mindful that–if they succeed–the public has high expectations for them to fulfill campaign promises and deliver solutions.”
The poll also found that 65.9% of those surveyed say President Biden and the Democratic leadership “have not made a strong enough case as to why Democrat candidates should earn voters’ support in 2022 elections,” while 34.1% said they had.
The breakdown showed that 75.4% of Independents agreed Democrats had failed to make the case for the voters’ support, along with 96% of Republicans and 28.5% of Democrats.
The nationwide poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Oct. 25-30 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.
The rolling analysis by FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 4-in-5 chance of winning the House but only a 50-50 shot of taking the Senate.
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— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) November 1, 2022