Lloyd Austin trip fuels talks of bigger U.S. military presence in the Philippines

Asian strategic eyes are fixed on the Philippines, where Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s two-day visit will include meetings with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. Thursday.

The Biden administration has been busily wooing Mr. Marcos since he took office in June, succeeding the mercurial and often U.S.-hostile President Rodrigo Duterte. Mr. Austin’s visit follows trips by Vice President Kamala Harris last July and State Secretary Antony Blinken last November.

Much of the pre-visit focus has been on whether or not Mr. Austin will win a deal to secure significant new basing rights in the country — a key square on the Indo-Pacific chessboard. The Pentagon seems optimistic.

“We anticipate that 2023 is going to be a very exciting year for the alliance,” an unnamed official said in a DOD statement. “Right now, I think we’re seeing a very positive upswing in the trajectory of the relationship.” 

The one-time U.S. colony was a battleground in World War II and subsequently served as a logistics hub and jumping-off point for American forces during the Korean and Vietnam conflicts. The U.S. naval base at Subic Bay and Clark Air Force Base became the two largest U.S. overseas military facilities but were closed down in the early 1990s.

As a rising China expanded across the region, Manila signed new agreements with Washington, notably 2014’s Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA. Under that, Washington can rotate troops in and out and pre-position equipment but not establish a permanent presence.

However, the agreement was hampered by local lack of progress on facility construction and by Mr. Duterte’s tilt toward China.

Recent EDCA discussions have reportedly focused on granting U.S. troops base access in Luzon, close to Taiwan in the north, and on Palawan, proximate to the contested Spratly Islands in the west, where Chinese and Southeast Asian militaries have established presences.

Mr. Austin’s visit aims to accelerate implementation of EDCA, the Pentagon statement said. The defense secretary on Wednesday visited a U.S. anti-terrorist detachment in the southern provinces, where Manila is battling a long-lasting Muslim insurgency, the Pentagon said.

“The visit of Secretary Austin definitely, obviously will have to do with many of the ongoing discussions on the EDCA sites,” Philippine Ambassador to Washington Jose Romualdez said at a news briefing.

And though last year’s joint “Balikatan” drills involved 9,000 troops, Mr. Austin is seeking a bigger, more reliable presence. The Philippine Constitution prohibits the permanent basing of foreign troops and their involvement in local combat.

The archipelago offers an ideal platform for operations across the South China Sea, which the Philippines’ northernmost point is just 200 miles from Taiwan, across the Luzon Strait. That strait is one of two strategic choke points that Chinese naval units must transit to reach open waters in the Pacific, from where they can potentially blockade Taiwan.

The other choke point is in the Miyako Strait, east of Taiwan in Japan’s Ryukyu Islands. That strait is covered by U.S. forces on Okinawa, as well as by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force.

Manila’s navy, however, is one of the region’s weakest and no match for China’s, which now exceeds even the U.S. Navy in number of vessels. Still, the Philippine military can provide meaningful support.

“They have certain capabilities and are actually combat experienced after decades of counterinsurgency,” said Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine officer and diplomat. “Arm them with anti-ship missiles and proper air defenses, and suddenly the Philippines look like an even more formidable barrier to the People’s Liberation Army.”