In the interests of full disclosure and a correct record, it is important to assess how well this columnist’s predictions for 2022 (originally published Jan. 2) reflected reality.
This columnist was mostly right about the following predictions for 2022:
“Senator Manchin will eventually vote for something terrible.” He did; most specifically, what President Biden has called “the Inflation Act.”
“Energy tax credits for sources that we don’t control and can’t turn on and off as needed will be included.” Again, see the Inflation Act.
“The Yankees will not win the World Series (again), which will extend their drought to 13 years, the longest in franchise history. It will also mean that they would have only won one World Series in the last 22 years, again, the worst such stretch in franchise history. The general manager (Brian Cashman) will not be fired.” Shot out the black on that one; Mr. Cashman has just been given a four-year extension.
“Inflation will continue to erode the value of wages and savings. Expect an annual rate of at least 7%.” Pretty close; the annual rate of inflation this year has been about 8%.
“Gasoline prices will moderate a bit by mid-year, as supply catches up with demand. Team Biden will take credit, despite deserving none.” Pretty nearly in the dead-center of the target.
“Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez … will not challenge [Chuck Schumer] for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from New York.” She did not.
“President Trump’s aura of inevitability will be dimmed by his endorsements, some of whom will lose, some of whom will embarrass themselves and, by extension, their patron.” Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker come immediately to mind.
“Olivia Rodrigo will win Best New Artist at the Grammys (as she should).” Too easy.
“After the midterm elections, Speaker Pelosi will announce her retirement. Congressman Hakeem Jeffries will step in as the Democratic leader in the House.” Again, too easy.
“As always, weakness is provocative. Either Russia, or China, or both, will accelerate their international hooliganism.” This year, Ukraine. Next year, Taiwan.
“In a decision that will cause political discomfort the Supreme Court will find that Roe v. Wade was overly broad and send abortion back to the States to decide. About 40 States will pass legislation pretty quickly either protecting the unborn or ratifying the general approach of Roe.” Pro-life advocates were pretty excited; the campaign consultant class, not so much.
This columnist was mostly wrong about these (made in the enthusiasm of January 2022):
“In the November elections, the Republicans will take the majority in the House (with about 255 seats) and the Senate (with about 52 seats). Because of candidate deficiencies, it is possible that the Republicans lose Senate races in Missouri and Georgia (again) that they should win, which will limit the scope of the victory.”
“While winning federal elections, the Republicans, who now hold a 27-23 advantage in governorships, will manage to lose 2 (net) of the 36 gubernatorial races being held in 2022, in part, because of primaries (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona) constructed or encouraged by Team Trump.”
“The Giants, a proud franchise with 8 NFL championships, will lose at least 12 games in 2022.” Happy to be wrong about this one.
The jury is still out (but probably not for too much longer) on this one: “The public health community will acknowledge that the ‘vaccines’ are not in fact ‘vaccines’ that preclude transmission or uptake of the virus, but rather are therapeutics.”
As Yogi Berra noted, making predictions, especially about the future, is difficult. Nevertheless, this columnist will keep doing it (see next Monday’s column) because it offers the sensation that we have some control over the future, and mostly because it is entertaining and fun.
• Michael McKenna, a columnist for The Washington Times, co-hosts “The Unregulated Podcast.” He was most recently a deputy assistant to the president and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs at the White House.