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China’s Twentieth Communist Party Congress kicked off Sunday with a major speech from Xi Jinping, as he prepares to assume a third five-year term as party general secretary. How should the world read his approach to the economy, Taiwan, and more? Experts from across the Atlantic Council are weighing in throughout the congress.
This post will be updated as more news breaks from the quinquennial gathering in Beijing and more reactions roll in.
Jump to an expert reaction
Jeremy Mark: What Xi ignored on the economy will cost him
Shirley Martey Hargis: Xi’s rhetoric indicates no imminent threat against Taiwan
Matthew Kroenig: Xi’s speech shows US and its allies must keep up confrontational approach
Kit Conklin: Xi leaves little room on strategic ambiguity on Taiwan
Dexter Tiff Roberts: Xi stays the course, which is bad news for the economy
What Xi ignored on the economy will cost him
While Xi’s speech declared economic development to be his “top priority,” there was no sign that he was concerned about—let alone prepared to ameliorate—the deep problems that have undermined China’s economy over the past two years. He gave no ground on the zero-COVID policies that have squelched domestic consumption and destroyed small businesses. There was no mention of soaring youth unemployment, which hovers near 20 percent in China’s cities. And he offered no hint of concerted policies that could ease the country’s deep property downturn and prevent that crisis from damaging the banking system.
What Xi ignored could make it more difficult to achieve the economic goals that his speech emphasized. This includes the “dual circulation” policy and “self-reliance,” which give greater weight to domestic demand-driven growth and higher, technology-driven productivity. Moreover, failure to revitalize the economy will undercut Xi’s lofty goal of “common prosperity,” which his speech elaborated upon to include the need to “standardize the order of income distribution and standardize wealth accumulation mechanisms.” It will be hard to divide the economic pie more evenly if it’s not growing.
—Jeremy Mark is a nonresident senior fellow at the GeoEconomics Center and former International Monetary Fund official and Asian Wall Street Journal correspondent.
Xi’s rhetoric indicates no imminent threat to Taiwan
Chairman Xi is not signaling any greater sense of urgency over Taiwan. We see the usual rhetoric that reunification is of the utmost importance, while asserting a long-established policy adhering to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus.
According to Xi, “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan,” and only China and Taiwan can resolve the Taiwan question. In line with his thought, other powers should mind their business. He states that he will never abandon the use of force and maintains that he will use “all measures necessary” to carry out “complete reunification.” He also mentions that these means are “directed solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ and their separatist activities; it is by no means targeted at our Taiwan compatriots.” Xi recognizes that, especially in recent years, Taiwan’s unique successes have drawn global acclaim—from its containment methods during the pandemic to its mastery of semiconductor manufacturing. Xi wants to temper those accomplishments as much as possible to keep other powers from aligning with Taiwan.
There is no imminent threat from China to take Taiwan militarily. Understandably, President Tsai Ing-wen and the Taiwanese people are not surprised by the speech. It is wise to keep a close eye on more than just military movements: Watch cyberspace and China’s daily use of psychological warfare, legal warfare, and public opinion warfare against Taiwan.
—Shirley Martey Hargis is a nonresident fellow at the Global China Hub and Digital Forensic Research Lab.
The US and its allies must keep up their confrontational approach
The speech shows that Xi is continuing his centralization of power over the Chinese state, and that China is likely to continue its more aggressive foreign policy. This means that the United States and its allies need to continue their more confrontational approach to China. They should selectively decouple their economies from China’s and secure supply chains. They should continue to build new frameworks and attract new allies and partners to balance the threats posed by China. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, they need to build a military force capable of defeating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Over the long term, more cordial relations between Beijing and Washington would be welcome, but Xi’s speech shows that relations will get worse before they get better.
—Matthew Kroenig is the acting director of the Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and a former US Department of Defense and intelligence community official.
Xi leaves little room for strategic ambiguity on Taiwan
Xi used his keynote speech to signal an increasingly bold and aggressive Chinese foreign policy. On Taiwan, Xi stated that Beijing is willing to “take all necessary measures” to “oppose Taiwanese independence.” Xi’s refusal to “renounce the use of force” leaves little room for strategic ambiguity when it comes to China’s willingness to go to war with the United States over Taiwan. Rather, Xi continued to prioritize the creation of an “innovation-driven” society that will enable China to become “technologically self-reliant.” Xi also called for the country to “resolutely win key core technology battles” and “modernize military weapons.” Xi’s remarks signal the party’s resolute belief that science and technology innovation is a key enabler for China’s broader political objectives, to include economic growth, military modernization, and Taiwan reunification.
—Kit Conklin is a nonresident senior fellow at the GeoTech Center and former US national-security official.
Xi stays the course, which is bad news for the economy
Economic priorities for China look broadly unchanged with no major shifts in direction. Beijing continues to be deeply concerned about its fractured relations with the world. As Xi stated in his speech, while China’s global power has increased, it is also facing an unstable international environment and must be prepared for “strong winds and high waves and even dangerous storms.” Xi emphasized the need for “self reliance,” particularly in technology, referring to the sector as a “prime driving force” in China’s development, one that of course is facing tremendous pressure from US-led sanctions. While developing China economically continues to be a defining goal, ensuring its security at home and abroad is also of paramount importance.
Domestically, China’s leaders know they are facing formidable headwinds, with Xi calling for the “spirit of… frugality across the entire society.” Xi signaled continued emphasis on a fairer economic system, saying China will regulate wealth accumulation. COVID-zero, China’s stringent pandemic policy, is unlikely to change anytime soon—which is bad news for China’s struggling economy and for the long-term, high-priority goal of transitioning to a more sustainable growth model, one less reliant on investment and debt, and more on household consumption.
—Dexter Tiff Roberts is a senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Asia Security Initiative and former China bureau chief for Bloomberg Businessweek.
Image: People watching China’s President Xi Jinping speaking on a screen during an event to view the live broadcast of the opening Ceremony of China Communist Party Congress on October 16, 2022 in Hong Kong. Photo by Vernon Yuen/NurPhoto via Reuters.
